A more active stretch of showers and thunderstorms through midweek to the week will give way to hotter, drier conditions just in time for the weekend. Tropical Storm Erin continues to churn in an awakening Atlantic Basin.  

Tonight & Tomorrow: Rain and thunderstorms will trend down into the evening hours. Some clearing is expected late, which should allow many to see the Perseid Meteor Shower. Optimal viewing for the vent will be between 12am and dawn, away from city lights. Overnight lows will settle in the mid-70s. On Wednesday, another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected. As a reminder, scattered means about half of the area will get rain, but not all. Inland areas may start with some sun, but any heating will help fuel pop-up storms by afternoon. Rain could slow the later commute for some. Activity will be most widespread near the coast, where downpours could lead to localized flooding. Also, conditions are favorable for waterspouts over the lakes and the Gulf. Away from thunderstorms, highs will top out in the low 90s.

Up Next: As rain coverage begins to taper off Thursday and Friday, temperatures will climb. By the weekend, drier weather will dominate with only a slim chance of a passing shower, allowing highs to soar into the mid-90s. Factor in the humidity, and heat index values could reach the 106–110° range—hot enough for heat advisories. If you have outdoor plans, be sure to pace yourself, stay hydrated, and take breaks in the shade to avoid heat-related illness.

The Tropics: Tropical Storm Erin, located about 820 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, is moving quickly west at 23 mph with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. Gradual strengthening is expected to begin Wednesday, and Erin could become a hurricane by late Thursday as it moves west-northwest. While there are no watches or warnings in effect, residents of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor its progress. Longer-range forecast guidance suggests a recurve north into the Atlantic Ocean, but it remains unclear exactly when and where that will happen.

A non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada, is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity to the west of its center. Some limited tropical or subtropical development is possible through early Wednesday as the low meanders near the relatively warm waters of the Gulf Stream. The system is expected to move northward over cooler waters later on Wednesday, ending its chances for tropical development.

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– Josh 

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