Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued along the central Gulf Coast, extending from the east Texas coastline to St. Mary Parish, as a brief tropical storm may develop on Wednesday. Through Thursday, there may be minor coastal flooding and some wind gusts over 30mph along the coast, while the primary impact remains heavy rain for inland areas. The National Hurricane Center has started issuing forecasts for Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Review the reason behind the relatively new potential “tropical cyclone terminology” HERE.

A FLOOD WATCH remains in effect for the entire Capital Region through Friday morning. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH means conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. Be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. For more on flooding safety, CLICK HERE.

Tonight & Tomorrow: A lull in showers and thunderstorms is expected through a muggy night ahead. However, a stalled front sitting right over the Capital Area will keep spotty showers and a few thunderstorms in play. On Wednesday, the approaching tropical system will actually squeeze down cloud cover a bit on its outer edges, granting a few breaks of sunshine. The breaks will be important moments that allow drainage to recover from recent heavy rain. Despite any sunshine and dry time, scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible throughout the day, especially during the afternoon and evening. While we may see fewer total storms on Wednesday, the ones that do break out will be capable of dumping heavy rain very quickly.   

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Up Next: By early Thursday, the Capital Area will be very vulnerable to flooding after multiple days of downpours. Remnants of the tropical disturbance will move across Louisiana and Mississippi, putting the local area on the eastern, more active side of the system. Heavy, tropical rain bands will bring widespread additional amounts of 4-7 inches of rain with “streaks” of 8-14 inches where bands repeat. If those amounts occur in our cities rather than open marsh or swamp land, it will trigger significant poor drainage and river flooding. In addition to the heavy rain, circulation associated with the tropical disturbance could also lead to an isolated, brief tornado.

On Friday, the tropical system will finally pull away to the east. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop due to lingering tropical moisture. Expect a slow, gradual lowering of daily rain coverage with the pattern moving back toward daytime warming pop-up thunderstorms over the weekend. Humidity will stay in place and highs will return to the 90s.    

Get the latest 7-day forecast and real-time weather updates HERE.

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The Tropics: As of 10pm Tuesday, Potential Tropical Cyclone One, was about 290 miles southwest of Lake Charles with maximum sustained winds of 30 mph. The system was moving northeast at 6 mph and expected to speed up over the next couple of days, moving offshore Tuesday night before tracking parallel to the upper Texas coast on Wednesday. There is a high chance it officially strengthens into a tropical storm Wednesday morning before making landfall in extreme eastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana late Wednesday or early Thursday.

River Flooding: With recent heavy rain and more storms on the way, several local river gauges are forecast to rise. To track conditions, find the latest river levels and forecasts below, updated twice every hour.

— The Storm Station Meteorologists

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