Light drizzle exits early, giving way to clearing skies and a much colder day. The coldest temperatures of the week arrive tonight, followed by another strong storm system bringing widespread rain Thursday and Friday.
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Today and tonight: Rain continues to push east of the area early this morning, and the back edge of lingering sprinkles will clear the region early. Skies gradually brighten through the day, but a cool and breezy northerly flow keeps highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s.
Tonight, clearing skies, calm winds, and high pressure overhead set the stage for a cold night, but some lingering ground moisture and a subtle warm layer aloft may limit how low temperatures fall. Even so, most locations along and north of I-10/12 are expected to dip to near or below freezing for 2–6 hours toward sunrise Wednesday.
Up Next: Temperatures moderate quickly on Wednesday as high pressure shifts east and light southeasterly winds return. Moisture then surges back into the region ahead of a developing Gulf system, setting up another extended period of rain from Thursday into Friday night.
Widespread totals of 2–3 inches are expected, with locally higher amounts possible where thunderstorms form or training bands set up. This rain will be beneficial, but rainfall rates in storms could be efficient, increasing the low-end risk for ponding or isolated flash flooding. Forecast totals and the degree of any heavy-rain threat will continue to be refined through the week. The image above is the EURO forecast. The GFS shows considerably higher amounts possible.
What to look out for: Freezing temperatures tonight: Prepare for 2–6 hours of subfreezing air north of I-10/12. Protect plants and pets, especially in rural and low-lying areas. Late week rain maker: Another slow-moving system Thursday–Friday could bring multiple rounds of rain and thunderstorms. Weekend improvement: High pressure builds in Saturday, delivering a cooler, drier weekend after the wet stretch.
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– Dave
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