A stalled cold front combined with a continuous surge of tropical moisture will trigger high rain and thunderstorm chances across the Baton Rouge area every day for the next week. In addition to the inch or two that has fallen since Tuesday, total rainfall amounts will stack up between 3 to 6 inches, with the highest amounts near and northwest of Baton Rouge. Localized street and poor drainage flooding will be possible daily, through Memorial Day weekend.
Rain Coverage: numerous showers and thunderstorms each day
Lurking Flood Threat: 3 to 6 inches may cause localized street and poor drainage flooding
Memorial Day Weekend: no washouts but plenty reason for indoor backup plans, especially afternoons
Tonight & Tomorrow: The afternoon batch of showers and thunderstorms will slowly fizzle after sunset. Warm, humid conditions will keep a firm grip on the region tonight, preventing temperatures from dropping below the low 70s. Light, south winds will keep it feeling much more like a muggy mid-summer night than late May. The Gulf moisture pump will continue tomorrow as a weak cold front will drift south and stall just north of the Capital Area. Afternoon temperatures will warm into the mid 80s, and cause numerous showers and thunderstorms to fire. The most active time for rain will be between 1pm – 7pm.
Up Next: Do not look for any quick clearing trends as we head into the holiday weekend. The broad weather pattern over the United States will remain locked in place from Friday through next Wednesday. A series of upper-level disturbances—essentially atmospheric ripples that create lift and spark storms—will continuously roll across the Deep South. With a stubborn tropical air mass in place, these disturbances will spark numerous showers and thunderstorms every single day.
Over the next seven days, about 3-6 inches of additional rain is anticipated. Spaced out over that time, these amounts wouldn’t create major problems, but any areas that see such amounts in a few days or even a few hours would cause street and poor drainage flooding. If you have outdoor holiday plans, do not cancel them just yet, but definitely have an indoor option nearby for when lightning is around.
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– Josh
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