Today & Tonight: We have one more day of pleasant weather conditions before things rapidly change. Sunshine will dominate most of the day, with the exception of a few clouds moving in by the evening. Highs will top out near 83 degrees, with no humidity! Lots of changes are expected overnight as a warm front slides through the region. Clouds will increase, and we could already see isolated showers and storms by daybreak.

Up Next: Available moisture in the atmosphere will continue to rise on Tuesday, potentially breaking the all-time moisture record for the day. This will cause humid conditions, and eventually numerous showers and storms. Rain chances will rise as the day goes on, peaking in the late evening and overnight. This will come as an organized complex of thunderstorms rolls through the area. Almost everyone will see rain, and some could see flash flooding because of intense rain rates. Those commuting on Wednesday morning might need to look out for areas of standing water. Severe weather is not off the table either, with gusty winds and isolated tornadoes being the primary concerns.

How exactly everything plays out Tuesday, will affect the eventual rain coverage for Wednesday. This means there are several unknowns in terms of exact timing and coverage at this time. Regardless, leftover moisture and additional disturbances will keep rain chances elevated. The same goes for Thursday. Any extra rain would aggravate the flash flood risk further. All told, 3-6” of rain with locally higher amounts appears likely in the next week. Most of that will fall into the Tuesday to Thursday timeframe. Moisture will begin exiting around Mother’s Day Weekend. While a spotty shower cannot be ruled out, the upcoming weekend appears relatively drier.

River Flooding: The National Weather Service has issued a RIVER FLOOD WARNING for the Mississippi River at Red River Landing, Baton Rouge, Donaldsonville, and Reserve, as well as the Atchafalaya River at Morgan City.

• At Red River Landing, flood stage is at 48 feet. The river has already crested at 59.5 feet. The river remains in moderate flood stage with levels falling. At current levels, Angola farmland on the left bank becomes inundated. All river islands along the reach from Red River Landing to Baton Rouge will remain inundated with recreational camps and river bottom farmland under water. This gauge will fall below flood stage around May 21.

• At Baton Rouge, flood stage is 35 feet. The river has already crested at 42.2 feet. The river remains in major flood stage with levels slowly falling. At current levels, the grounds of the older part of Louisiana State University's campus become soggy. This includes the area around the Veterinary Medicine building, the Veterinary Medicine Annex, and Alex Box Stadium. Levees protect the city of Baton Rouge and the main LSU campus at this level. Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. This gauge will fall below flood stage around May 12.

• At Donaldsonville, the flood stage is at 27 feet. The river has already crested at 30.9 feet. The river remains in moderate flood stage with levels slowly falling. At current levels, navigation becomes difficult for smaller river craft. Safety precautions for river traffic are urged. This gauge will fall below flood stage around May 11.

• At Reserve, flood stage is at 22 feet. The river has already crested at around 23.7 feet. The river remains shy of moderate flood stage with levels slowly falling. At current levels, marine and industrial interests along the river, upstream barge operators, and facilities are impacted. Navigation will become difficult for smaller river craft. This gauge will fall below flood stage around May 9.

• At Morgan City, flood stage is at 6 feet. The river has already crested at around 6.7 feet. The river remains in minor flood stage with levels slowly falling. At current levels, the city dock will be under water. Water will cover the lower end of Belleview Front Street in Berwick. Vessel traffic will be affected by stronger river currents. Vessel traffic safety rules will be strictly enforced by the U.S. Coast Guard. The river will fall below flood stage around May 9.