The Tropics: The National Hurricane Center has started issuing official, tropical weather outlooks. While this was previously done on the first day of hurricane season, June 1, last year the NHC decided to start outlooks earlier due to the recent string of pre-season tropical systems. In this year's first outlook, no development is expected over the next 5 days.
The Explanation: An upper level ridge of high pressure will weaken on Friday. Despite this, drier air in the atmosphere should continue to promote a quiet weather pattern with high temperatures still climbing into the low 90s. By Saturday afternoon, cooling temperatures aloft will promote instability while southwesterly upper level winds transport moisture back into the region. With the daytime warming, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi. With a weak front entering the region, a trigger may remain in place for some activity to continue overnight Saturday into Sunday. A deep feed of moisture originating from the Caribbean Sea will surge across the region pushing atmospheric moisture content to very high levels. With that front moving closer to the region and slowing down on Sunday, there will be a clear forcing mechanism in addition to the favorable conditions provided by the cooler, more unstable atmosphere and added moisture. Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms will carry through the second half of the weekend and into early next week. Though the timing is not ideal for outdoor plans, this rain will be beneficial to most areas considered to be in drought and it will help to keep high temperatures in the 80s. Even Tuesday and Wednesday, the pattern will stay favorable for episodes of heavy rain with a continued feed of moisture across the region and a weakening, but stalled boundary providing a focus for development. Southwest winds in the upper levels favor disturbances rolling over the area, which will trigger rounds of activity. Since these little impulses tend to be very subtle, they may be difficult for us to detect and time out until next week. Daytime warming and marine breezes will certainly play a role in development as well, making the middle of the day the most likely time for activity.
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The weather pattern will transition into the weekend. A deep flow of tropical moisture will bring widespread, and at times heavy, showers and thunderstorms to the region.
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