Enjoy the pleasant conditions while they last over the next day or two. You can expect comfortable mornings giving way to bright, warm afternoons. Heading into Friday and Saturday, the outer bands of Hurricane Isaias could brush the region with scattered showers as it tracks toward the Central Gulf Coast. However, we are growing increasingly confident on major impacts remaining to our east.

Today & Tonight: After a nice morning start in the 60s, Thursday brings plenty of sunshine with highs reaching the low 90s. Heat index values will stay below the triple-digits. Rain chances will remain near zero. Overnight, skies will be mostly clear with comfortable lows near 67°. 

Up Next: Because Isaias is shifting further east, rainfall across the region should stay fairly light through Friday and Saturday. While an isolated shower is possible during the day Friday, the highest likelihood of rain comes late Friday night into early Saturday morning as the storm moves ashore to our east. There will not be major wind impacts but we could see breezes pushing 30 mph. Coastal water rises of 3-5 feet will be possible for eastward facing shores. Water rises of 1-3 feet will be possible for area lakes. Skies will dry out over the course of Saturday as Isaias moves inland, drawing cooler, drier air into the area behind it.

Along with the clearing skies, a cooler airmass will settle in, keeping Saturday’s highs capped in the lower 80s. That paves the way for a crisp Sunday morning, with temperatures dropping into the low 60s. Expect a dry, pleasant finish to the weekend and a nice start to Monday, though humidity will gradually build back in by mid-week as temperatures climb back into the 90s.

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The Tropics: Hurricane Isaias has continued to strengthen, with hurricane hunter aircraft measuring top wind speeds near 80 mph, even while overcoming upper-level wind shear that is slightly tilting the storm. Isaias is moving east-northeast at about 9 mph and is expected to curve north and northeast over the next day or two, guided by a high-pressure system near the Bahamas and a cold front pushing in from the west. Forecast models remain in strong agreement on this path, which brings the storm toward the northern Gulf Coast. Isaias is likely to intensify further over very warm ocean waters, potentially approaching major hurricane status within 24 hours, before stronger upper-level winds cause some light weakening just prior to landfall. However, the storm is expected to expand in size and speed up as it moves ashore and pushes inland, bringing widespread high winds and lingering heavy weather well beyond the coast as it transforms into a powerful inland storm system.

— Balin

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