Data from NOAA aircraft indicated the storm had eclipsed maximum sustained winds of the 74 mph, the threshold to be considered a hurricane. The average date for the first Atlantic hurricane of the season is typically around August 11th, placing Erin's potential upgrade to hurricane status right on schedule for an active period of tropical development.

Located about 460 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands, its present movement is west at a swift 18 mph. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected into Saturday. This track puts the center of Erin on a path to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the upcoming weekend. Additional strengthening is expected over the next few days, with Erin possibly intensifying into a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) by the end of this weekend.

Erin is expected to bring heavy rainfall to the northernmost Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and southern and eastern Puerto Rico, beginning late Friday and continuing through the weekend. Totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated amounts up to 6 inches, are expected. This could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding, as well as landslides or mudslides. Tropical storm winds are possible within the watch areas by early Saturday. Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico by this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

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