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Wednesday Afternoon Video Forecast
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October will kick off on a humid and unsettled note. While storms will remain scattered through late week, a surge in tropical moisture over the weekend will limit outdoor dry time and raise the risk of localized nuisance flooding.
Tonight & Tomorrow: Another mostly clear night is ahead with nothing more than a few passing clouds from time to time. However, it won’t feel nearly as comfortable as an east-southeast breeze channels humidity right back into the region. Wake-up temperatures will run several degrees warmer in the low-to-mid-70s. Thursday will feel quite steamy as Gulf moisture sets up shop across the region. As temperatures creep toward the upper 80s and lower 90s, scattered showers and storms will pop. This could occur as early as mid-morning and linger into the afternoon. It won’t be an all-day washout, but passing storms will likely affect about half the area at some point.
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Up Next: The weather will turn even more active into the weekend as a frontal system approaches. While Friday brings a continuation of the scattered thunderstorm activity, rain will become more numerous on Saturday and Sunday. These storms will tap into a moisture-loaded atmosphere, with levels pushing record values for early October. Consequently, these storms could bring heavy rainfall right in the middle of a weekend filled with outdoor events and football games. Detailed timing will come into focus soon, but here are the key points to keep in mind:
• Rain Coverage — About half of the area will come across a downpour on Friday, with plenty of dry time in between. Even the weekend won't be a total washout, but the dry windows may run shorter. The storm coverage grows to 70% on Saturday and Sunday. That means most will experience rain over the weekend, but a select few could miss out on any given day.
• Rain Totals & Impacts — 2-4” is a decent baseline for rainfall in the Thursday to Monday timeframe. Locally higher amounts are on the table given that a few storms could rain out up to 4” per hour. This could easily overwhelm street storm drains and ditches, leading to water ponding on roads and flash flooding of low-lying spots. Areas south and east of Baton Rouge stand the best chance for those higher totals, while locations to the northwest will lean toward the lower end. Heavy rain aside, these storms could interrupt outdoor plans. Keep an eye on the sky, and always know where to take shelter if lightning strikes.
• Temperatures — Clouds and rain will keep temperatures cool over the weekend, dropping highs into the 80s. Lows will hold steady in the low 70s due to humidity.
The wet pattern may linger into early next week as the front stalls, but most of the moisture will start pushing offshore. Toward the middle part of next week, a secondary cold front might come into view. This one is worth monitoring, as it could deliver the first big temperature drop of the season.
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The Tropics: With Hanna losing its tropical characteristics early Wednesday, the Atlantic returns to its slumber. No additional tropical development is expected across the Gulf, Caribbean, and Atlantic over the next seven days.
— Meteorologist Malcolm Byron
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