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Wednesday PM Forecast: weather pattern switch into the weekend

1 month 2 weeks 8 hours ago Wednesday, May 11 2022 May 11, 2022 May 11, 2022 5:06 PM May 11, 2022 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

Thursday through the weekend, showers and thunderstorms will be back in the forecast. This should at least cut down the duration of the warmth during the afternoon hours.

Next 24 Hours: Another quiet night is ahead. Beneath mostly clear skies, low temperatures will dip into the upper 60s. Thursday will begin with plenty of sunshine allowing temperatures to climb into the 80s by 10am and the 90s by late afternoon. Late in the day, showers and thunderstorms will move into the area from the northeast, increasing in coverage. Any of the scattered storms could produce downpours, frequent lightning and gusty wind before diminishing later into the evening hours.   

Up Next: Friday and Saturday will play out very similar to Thursday with partly sunny skies giving way to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. Again, briefly heavy rain, a lot of lightning and elevated winds will be possible in storms. With slightly cooler air aloft and the onset of showers, high temperatures should be limited to the upper 80s. Though not entirely quiet, less action is expected Sunday. Early next week should get right back to a drier pattern with slightly above average high temperatures. There is a chance humidity could be a touch lower with dew points temperatures and low temperatures in the 60s. CLICK HERE for your detailed 7-Day Forecast.


It has been a while since we talked about those rain chances, or percentages on the forecast board often seen during the warm season. Here is a quick reminder about what those mean for the WBRZ Weather 13 Parish, 3 County forecast area.

10-30% - Isolated: a few locations receive measurable rain

30-60% - Scattered: part to half of the area receives measurable rain

60-100% - Widespread: almost all of the area receives measurable rain 

Keep in mind, those chances tell nothing about timing. For instance, 100% DOES NOT mean it will rain all day. We will be sure to provide information in our forecasts as to when you can expect rain when chances are on the board. MORE: https://www.wbrz.com/news/a-chance-to-remember


The Explanation: On Thursday, an upper level low pressure system will move westward from the Atlantic Ocean into the Southeast U.S. At the same time, another upper level trough will move across the Plains and Great Lakes regions. These systems will weaken the subsidence caused by an upper level ridge that was responsible for the recent hot and dry stretch. Much more instability aloft will lead to convection (showers and thunderstorms). After quiet mornings, scattered activity will develop during the afternoon and evening hours Thursday through Sunday. With the ample instability and high moisture in place, any thunderstorms will be capable of downpours, frequent lightning and possibly some gusty wind. Sunday should work out to be the least busy of the four-day stretch as the upper level pattern transitions. The trough will start to flatten out and overall moisture will decrease into early next week. At the same time, an upper level ridge will try to reestablish over the region. The consequence of these changes will be fewer (if any) showers, warm temperatures and perhaps a slight reduction in dew points or humidity compared to the weekend.

--Josh

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