Another cold front will push humidity and warmer temperatures out over the next couple of days. But don’t get too comfortable — humidity and storms are likely to return this weekend with the arrival of the next impact.

Tonight & Tomorrow: As a cold front presses southward, spotty early evening thundershowers will fade with time. Low clouds will be left behind as the front moves to the coast overnight. So while a cooler air mass will start moving in, temperatures will struggle to dip below 60° where clouds linger. However, areas along and north of the I-12 corridor in Baton Rouge may see some clearing before dawn, allowing temperatures to dip into the 50s. Wednesday will be largely sunny and warm, with a high in the low 80s and little to no humidity.

Rest of the Week: Temperatures will bottom out early Thursday in the upper 40s to low 50s. Sunshine veiled by high clouds will push highs into the low 80s again by afternoon — another pleasant day with a fall feel. Friday will also be comfortable, but temperatures will inch higher by a few degrees. Humidity will follow suit, but not reach muggy thresholds just yet.

The Next Impact: The muggy feel will be back in full swing by the weekend, and as an upper-level disturbance moves toward the lower Mississippi River Valley, that’s a recipe for another round of showers and storms. This will be something to keep an eye on, especially with LSU and Southern both playing at home this weekend. A few showers may pop up as early as Saturday afternoon, but the latest data has trended a little later with the arrival time of storms. Confidence is increasing for the majority of rain coming late Saturday and possibly lasting into a good portion of Sunday. Rainfall on the order of 1-3” is expected with this system, and while widespread severe weather looks unlikely, a strong storm or two is not out of the question.

The system responsible for weekend storms is currently located a few hundred miles off Southern California’s coast. As it moves inland on Wednesday, forecast confidence will increase, and details will become clearer through late week.

Up Next: While not as soggy, spotty showers may accompany a warm and muggy feel that will linger into early next week. Long-range trends hint at a cold front pushing through by midweek. This could be the area’s first genuine fall front, potentially dropping temperatures sharply as Halloween approaches.

The Tropics: Tropical Storm Melissa formed in the Caribbean Sea on Tuesday morning. The storm will slowly drift northwestward in the coming days. By the weekend, Melissa will venture closer to Hispaniola and Jamaica while strengthening into a hurricane. Heavy rain, flooding, landslides, and hurricane-force winds will be possible in some of the northern Caribbean Islands. It’s still early in the game, so shifts in forecast track will need to be monitored for those areas. However, Melissa will not pose a threat to the U.S. Gulf Coast.

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— Meteorologist Malcolm Byron

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