Tuesday PM Forecast: highs in low 90s, mainly dry finish to workweek
The second half of the week will be rather warm with minimal rain chances. The pattern will change this weekend due to an approaching front.
Next 24 Hours: Any showers and thunderstorms that manage to get going will diminish through the early evening hours. Then, skies will partially clear with low temperatures dipping into the low 70s. Wednesday will be mostly sunny and warm with high temperatures in the low 90s. Enough humidity is expected to bump feels-like temperatures close to 100 degrees.
Up Next: Thursday and Friday will be plenty warm and sticky as well with thermometers chalking up highs in the low 90s as well. A largely dry forecast is expected for the back half of the workweek. By the weekend, a weak front moving into the area will bring a significant uptick in the numbers of showers and thunderstorms, especially Saturday afternoon through Sunday. This could possibly provide some meaningful rain for the area. This time of year, chances really decrease for any changes in temperatures or humidity. However, the new week could begin with a small but noticeable downturn in humidity and temperatures that are closer to average. CLICK HERE for your detailed 7-Day Forecast.
The Tropics: The National Hurricane Center has started issuing official, tropical weather outlooks. While this was previously done on the first day of hurricane season, June 1, last year the NHC decided to start outlooks earlier due to the recent string of pre-season tropical systems. In this year's first outlook, no development is expected over the next 5 days.
In addition to the 5-Day Tropical Weather Outlook from @NHC_Atlantic, (and those models everyone loves so much), another guidance tool is available from @NWSCPC, which provides a broader two week outlook every Tuesday. This is the latest issuance. pic.twitter.com/vwaRLKqJ0G— Josh Eachus (@DrJoshWX) May 17, 2022
For more than a week, one of the two major computer models has been consistently hinting at tropical activity around the Gulf of Mexico before Memorial Day. There are a lot of "click-bait" sources providing misleading information about that possibility. It is important to know that this is only one model, and it tends to exaggerate tropical development this time of year. There are many weather variables that go into tropical development like sea surface temperatures, upper level patterns, wind speeds and so much more that one single model cannot be the sole cause for alarm. Trust that the Storm Station Meteorologists are tracking tropical developments around the clock. We will let you know if and when any formation is possible.
The Explanation: An upper level ridge of high pressure will build across the region on Wednesday, shifting the more favorable instability and vertical motions for showers and thunderstorms to the east. The center of the ridge should result in enough subsidence (sinking air) for a completely dry forecast. The ridge will begin to break down by the end of the week, but forecast model guidance is in agreement on maintaining a dry forecast until the weekend. By then, the upper level ridge will by flattened by a broad upper level trough of low pressure moving across the Midwest. Broad lift in the atmosphere in advance of the trough will tap into the ample instability created by warmth and humidity. Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop throughout the late morning and afternoon. The center of the trough and cold front will slow or stall over the area Saturday night and Sunday and this will break the routine of daytime showers and thunderstorms. Instability and lift will continue at night keeping precipitation in the forecast. The weakening boundary will trigger new development as temperatures warm on Sunday. By the beginning of next week, the system should fully dissipate and return local weather to the typical rhythm of mainly afternoon convection. Even in falling apart, if this front can make it south of the area, big if, we could feel some slightly lower humidity early next week, but do not hold your breath waiting for that this time of year.
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