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The heat and humidity won’t be gatekept much longer. Both will be unleashed upon the Capital Area by midweek, setting the stage for the return of showers and thunderstorms ahead of Mother’s Day weekend.
Tonight & Tomorrow: Another calm, mostly clear night is in store. The steady warmup will continue, aided by a gentle southeast breeze, with lows settling in the upper 50s. Winds will pick up throughout the day, sustained out of the southeast at 10-20 mph. This will nudge temperatures into the mid-80s and allow a slightly muggy feel to return. The boost in moisture will sprout some puffy fair-weather cumulus clouds. While most will remain decorative, a stray sprinkle or two can’t entirely be ruled out.
Up Next: Heat will continue to build on Wednesday as highs stop just short of 90°, also paired with humidity that will rival summertime levels. There might even be a pop-up shower or two, but most rain will hold off until after dark as a cold front approaches. A weakening line of storms may clip the I-10/12 corridor late Wednesday into the pre-dawn hours on Thursday. However, even those showers appear to be slowing down. A strong, gusty storm isn’t completely off the table, but the greatest severe risk will stay well to the north and west.
As the cold front settles in the Capital Area on Thursday, storms should flare up with daytime warming. The added cloud cover and rain chances will keep temperatures lower, likely topping out in the 70s. Once again, a few strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible. The setup also favors repeating rounds of heavy rain along the front, which could result in pockets of street and poor drainage flooding.
Mother’s Day Weekend: A previously unclear weekend forecast is beginning to come into focus. The whole forecast hinges on the behavior of the midweek frontal system — specifically, whether it remains offshore or hangs out by the coast. As it presses toward the coast on Friday, the front may ring out some isolated showers, especially along and south of I-10. The front will settle just offshore Saturday, lingering close enough to trigger a few showers. By Mother’s Day, however, that front charges back north, opening the door for a surge in heat, humidity, and a few more storms.
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– Meteorologist Malcolm Byron
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