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Wednesday PM Forecast: looking at a wetter pattern for the weekend

1 month 1 week 1 day ago Wednesday, May 18 2022 May 18, 2022 May 18, 2022 4:57 PM May 18, 2022 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

There is not much action in the forecast to close the week. Moving into the weekend, although the timing is not looking great for outdoor plans, some needed rain is coming.

Next 24 Hours: Tonight will be mostly clear with low temperatures in the low 70s. Tomorrow will be mostly sunny with high temperatures in the low 90s.

Up Next: Friday is expected to stay dry and it will be warm with thermometers chalking up highs in the low 90s. By the weekend, a weak front moving into the area will bring a significant uptick in the numbers of showers and thunderstorms. On Saturday, action will fire up in the afternoon after high temperatures climb into the low 90s. A few showers and thunderstorms will then be possible overnight thanks to the advancing front. As it stall over the area, Sunday looks to be busy with widespread showers and thunderstorms. The remnants of the front could continue to instigate afternoon showers and thunderstorms on Monday. While the timing of the wet weather may not be ideal for weekend, outdoor activities, it will keep high temperatures in the 80s on Sunday and Monday. Additionally, this system will provide needed rain for the area, which is experiencing short-term drought. About 2-4 inches of precipitation is anticipated overall. CLICK HERE for your detailed 7-Day Forecast.

The Tropics: The National Hurricane Center has started issuing official, tropical weather outlooks. While this was previously done on the first day of hurricane season, June 1, last year the NHC decided to start outlooks earlier due to the recent string of pre-season tropical systems. In this year's first outlook, no development is expected over the next 5 days.

The Explanation: An upper level ridge of high pressure will start to weaken on Thursday and Friday. Despite this, drier air in the atmosphere should continue to promote a dry weather pattern with high temperatures still climbing into the low 90s. By Saturday afternoon, cooling temperatures aloft will promote instability while southwesterly upper level winds transport moisture back into the region. With the daytime warming, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi. With a weak front entering the region, a trigger may remain in place for some activity to even continue overnight Saturday into Sunday. With the front moving closer to the region and slowing down on Sunday, there will be a clear trigger in addition to the favorable conditions provided by the cooler, more unstable atmosphere and moistening upper level winds. Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms will carry through the second half of the weekend. Though the timing is not ideal for outdoor plans, this rain will be beneficial to most areas considered to be in drought and will also help to keep high temperatures in the 80s. Though the cold front should dissipate over the area, the upper level trough of low pressure responsible for it will still be influencing the local weather. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected as temperatures warm up on Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday, the upper level trough will be absorbed by the jet stream and slowly lift away from the region returning weather to a more typical pattern of isolated, afternoon convection.

--Josh

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