Even with tropical moisture in place, other factors have limited the number of storms lately. The latest Storm Station forecast takes this into account. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Erin has formed in the Atlantic and will become a hurricane later in the week.

Admittedly, the rain forecast has left much to be desired lately. Despite plenty of tropical moisture, a combination of morning clouds and lack of a trigger has limited rain coverage in recent afternoons.

Tonight & Tomorrow: Even with very few storms developing Monday afternoon, a spotty shower isn’t out of the question during the evening. Look for a morning low in the mid-70s. While most inland locations will turn mostly clear, coastal areas will see another round of overnight storms. Tuesday will feature a mixture of clouds and sun. In light of what has taken place in recent days, confidence in Tuesday’s rain forecast is a little lower. However, we maintain scattered storms in the forecast due to a slightly more favorable pattern. It’s not a bad idea to have rain gear on hand in case a few downpours set up overhead. It will otherwise be warm during the day, with a high in the low 90s.

Up Next: With a fair amount of tropical moisture lingering on Wednesday and Thursday, isolated to scattered storms will be possible. Even with a fair amount of tropical moisture, a trigger for thunderstorms may be harder to find. This should keep afternoon storms isolated to scattered in nature.

By late week and over the weekend, a building ridge of high pressure will work against storms even more. With the coverage of storms lowering, temperatures will gradually rise. Expect highs to climb from the lower to the middle 90s by the weekend. Factoring in humidity, another round of heat alerts might be needed.

The Tropics: Tropical Storm Erin formed in the eastern Atlantic on Monday morning, just west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Gradual strengthening is expected through midweek, but the rate of intensification will pick up afterward. Erin will become the first hurricane, and possibly the first major hurricane, of the 2025 hurricane season by the weekend. The storm will approach the Leeward Islands around that time.

Beyond the weekend, the forecast track becomes less clear. Most guidance seems to indicate that Erin will eventually curve north, but when and how aggressive that turn will be is to be determined. It's still too early to speculate on any potential U.S. impacts — if they occur at all. But at this point, a track into the Gulf appears to be the unlikely scenario. Check back with the Storm Station for future updates.

Meanwhile, a non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada is drifting over the warm Gulf Stream waters. Some tropical or subtropical development could occur over the next day or so. By midweek, the system will move northward over cooler waters, ending chances for further development.

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— Meteorologist Malcolm Byron

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