A strong upper-level system will bring rain and thunderstorms to the area Monday night through Tuesday, with a few storms possibly turning strong. A sharp cool down arrives just in time for Thanksgiving.

Today and tonight:  A warming and increasingly humid day is ahead as onshore winds return and moisture surges northward. Skies will start partly sunny, but clouds will thicken late, with highs reaching near 80 degrees once again. While most of the day stays dry, a few showers may develop late as deeper moisture arrives.

Tonight, conditions become more unsettled. The first round of showers could begin late this evening, with the best chance for stronger storms arriving overnight into early Tuesday, especially for areas north of the metro and southwest Mississippi. Lows will stay mild in the upper 60s as humidity stays high.

Up Next: Tuesday brings the highest rain and thunderstorm chances of the week. The heaviest storms, most likely during the morning, will favor the northern areas, where brief instability and a strengthening low-level jet may support a few strong to marginally severe storms. Rainfall totals remain limited, generally under 1 inch, and a few areas could miss most of the rain altogether.

The true front sweeps through Tuesday night, ushering in sharply drier air. By Thanksgiving, dew points drop, and highs fall back into the mid–60s, right on target for late November. Morning temperatures turn chilly, with 40s on Thanksgiving morning and some upper 30s by Friday morning in the colder spots. A warming trend begins by the weekend as the onshore flow returns and rain chances creep back in by Sunday.

Tropics: No tropical development is expected anywhere in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf over the next 7 days.

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– Dave

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