Multiple rounds of heavy rain will take aim at parts of the Mid-Mississippi River and Ohio River Valleys late this week. Some locations could collect over a foot of rain, leading to widespread, potentially catastrophic flash flooding in the region. While this is of no immediate concern for Baton Rouge, saturated soils to the north will struggle to absorb the excessive rain. This will force greater amounts of runoff into tributaries and eventually the Mississippi River itself.

The surge in water levels will gradually work its way south, causing local sections of the Mississippi River to swell. The latest guidance shows rising water levels starting next week, approaching minor flood stage on the week of April 15. Minor flooding along the Mississippi primarily affects river traffic and industrial operations outside of the primary levee system. River islands from Red River Landing to Baton Rouge also tend to experience inundation. Although it hasn’t occurred in the last two years, such an occurrence is normal in the springtime.

It is important to note that the Amite and Comite Rivers feed into Lake Pontchartrain rather than the Mississippi River. Flood concerns in those basins remain separate and depend on local rainfall patterns rather than upstream runoff.

For significant impacts, such that might require openings of spillways, a near-record crest would have to occur. While that is not expected at this time, the Storm Station will keep an eye on it. You can find the latest projections and river stages HERE.

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